Tuesday, February 28, 2017

A question: What explains a population's response to a multi-individual traumatic event?

Discussion section for a course on psychiatric epidemiology




1. PTSD question for psychiatric epidemiologists?

Will we see cases of PTSD among those who were not present in Nice on Bastille Day, but who watched the event on TV?

Will we see cases of PTSD among those who were not present in New Orleans during that Mardi Gras celebration, but who watched the event on TV?

PTSD-TV readings:



Also see: "Post-Modern Stress Disorder" hypothesis: link

2. To what extent will a democracy-regulated population accept federal government curtailment of its freedoms after a foreign-origin terrorism event (e.g., 9/11), a domestic-origin terrorism event (e.g., Oklahoma bombing, April, 1995), or a drunk driving catastrophe?

Take into consideration the number of people killed or injured each year in the US from each type of event?

Take into account the U.S. Constitution and its focus on the protection of the U.S. from foreign invasion, with no mention of drunk driving, as well as other considerations.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Hexagonal closest packing?

 

A SAMHSA blog of possible interest, and a note on CV Chaplin and his "ceremonies of incantation" in public health work

I see their posters, etc., and think about micro-trials embedded in longitudinal studies under randomized conditions --through which we would learn whether these investments of tax dollars do anything useful beyond window-dressing for the government.



This is the kind of possibly cynical question that CV Chaplin advocated when he was told to use his limited Commissioner of Public Health dollars to continue the practice of "terminal disinfection" in Providence, RI, more than 100 years ago, something he regarded as a kind of "ceremony of incantation " in public health work. Anniversary of his death = January 31.

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Risk assessment expert's take on opioids


Don is world expert on risk assessment.

Read what he says about opioids.

We live in an irrational world where stigma constrains rational public health work.

Sad

J.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Netherlands cannabis policy in flux



News story

Feedback

'Causality' is an example of an "every day notion" that has penetrated epidemiological thinking for at least 150 years.

I try to discourage my students from thinking about it too much, especially if they think about it loosely.

'Reverse causality' seems to have appeared in epidemiology more recently, perhaps only ~30 years ago, and it is more noxious because it's easier to think about loosely. But perhaps it is more important that it is a within-the-field jargon term that makes it harder to communicate with our public audience.

An early example in epidemiology involved developmental deficits and environmental lead exposure. Thinking ELE-->DD, the investigation faced the possibility that DD-->ELE, as in a disabled child eating paint chips on the window sill of a house painted with lead additives (e.g., added to speed drying of the paint).

Thinking about this possibility from a physics perspective, one faces the concept of feedback and feedback loops, which the public knows something about from first-hand experience (every day notion), if only from watching a Roadrunner cartoon or Three Stooges movie.

Did the epidemiologists use the term "feedback"?

I regret to say they did not.

Instead, they turned to a new jargon-term for the field ( "reverse causality" ) and set us on a path leading away from public comprehension toward a within-discipline conversation.

The next time you feel a need to write down or use the epidemiology jargon term "reverse causality" please return, and re-read this important article on the inadequacy of climate change modeling:

Feedback missing in climate change modeling.

There is no mention of "reverse causality."

Instead, we see the term "feedback."

Hmmm. Any lesson for communication of epidemiological evidence to the public?

Post a comment if you face a situation in which you feel compelled to use the term "reverse causality" in an epidemiology context, but the term "feedback" cannot be enlisted into service of improved communication.

By the way, some of you may recall the pertinent distinction between recursive and non-recursive arithmetic relations, with 'recursive' defined in relation to a sequence of terms in arithmetic as opposed to the apparent temporal flow of time sequences. 


Is this memory important?

See: 
Paxton et al., 2011

Is there a fundamental problem created by epidemiology graduate programs that persist in failure to teach principles of simultaneous equations modeling to every student?

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Brain disease, addiction, drug using as a "passion" -- all playing into and out of a social control agenda?

You must judge for yourself.

I think that Prof Hart may be trying to remind us that science, at its best, sets forth falsifiable propositions that then can be evaluated through observation and experiment (i.e., made subject to falsification).

The proposition that something is a brain disease is not a case of science setting forth a falsifiable proposition.

It is a metaphorical statement. Brain disease is being used as a metaphor in a social construction that is engaging because it focuses our attention on what can be learned through advanced brain imaging technologies and those used in Nobel Prize-winning molecular biology research on fundamental processes of memory. By calling something a brain disease, we can place that something into the domain of dazzling 21st century public health research, and move it out of the cathedrals, churches, and prayer meetings into biomedical laboratories.

What's wrong with that?

Prof Hart reminds us of the reductionistic fallacy, a kind of synecdoche, in which we characterize and name the whole thing by mentioning one (perhaps tiny) part, as in "Seeing the sails, we braced for battle." The battle is not with the sails. Here, using synecdoche, we make the sails stand for the armada of an opposing navy, and prepare for what is to happen next.

If the fight were truly with the sails, we might prepare catapults to throw flaming liquids that would burn the sails. But doing so, we would neglect to load the cannons or arm ourselves for close combat.

Here, Prof Hart does a great service by reminding us that the brain disease metaphor is overly reductionistic. It gained political currency in an post "Great Society" era. Current over-emphasis of that metaphor has produced, in some quarters, a point of view that the leaders who direct this country's drug research agenda are willing to give priority only to the kind of research that they themselves conduct in the brain research laboratories.

Knowing these leaders, I would say that they give some appearance of that willingness in their public utterances, and that they might do better by conveying to the public an appreciation that "brain disease" can be a useful metaphor, but that its utility has clear boundaries. The brain disease metaphor speaks to the tip of the epidemiological iceberg that Prof Hart mentions -- the most severe of the drug-involved casualties, and perhaps only a small subset of those casualties. It does not speak to the drug involvement of the vast majority of drug users, whose drug-taking is not a manifestation of any "brain disease," but rather is a behavioral and social choice made quite consciously and deliberately, akin to deciding whether to drink a brew after a hard day of being the "ama de casa" or doing other work.

The rest of this post meanders about this theme, and might not be worth reading or remembering.

In troubling times:
Great courage and good cheer!
J.

p.s.





To this stage, in the U.S.A., it's been neither science nor evidence driving the judgments.
You can choose your metaphor, and select the supporting "facts" while other details are ignored.
Some metaphors lead one to draw up tactics for re-shaping individuals via social control.
Some metaphors lead one to draw up tactics for re-shaping of human society.

Imagine a society that has replaced all current minimum wage jobs with automatons.
Now, extend the reach to elimination of virtually all jobs that previously could be performed without a GPA>2.95 and a four-year college degree.
Food, shelter, health care, etc.
Don't worry about it.
The productivity of the top 50% is enough to finance a society of artists, musicians, thinkers, goof-offs, ....
And no one in that top 50% is a wage slave.
At any time, they can turn on, tune in, and drop out (of going to work every day).
There is someone else happy to replace them, with a four year college degree and GPA=2.96.
Labor shortage is a thing of the past.

The drug experience is re-conceptualized one of a set of choices about how one occupies the waking hours.
To be sure, that experience might yield no new art, poetry, novels, music, etc.

Instead, the drugger's choice is to take an extended vacation from all that, and to plan for a return after the vacation.

Some, who have gold in the pockets, fly down to Mar-a-Lago and play golf for the weekend, eat a steak, play xBox,..., fly back, with a large carbon footprint.
Others, with less gold, drop something, turn on, and tune in for the weekend, eat a tofu burger and sprouts, play Frisbee in the neighborhood park, with a modest carbon footprint.

Who has the brain disease?

Who is the criminal?

We have to make judgments.

I have seen enough who truly do have a brain disease, acquired after onset of drug use, and before drug use, there had been no sign of any such affliction. (This is the tip of the epidemiological iceberg of drug involvement I have mentioned elsewhere, with a stretch from the first drug exposure opportunity onward toward the first use of the drug, most often a transient "honeymoon" with the drug, and then movement on to something else, with no enkindling of a brain disease process for the vast majority of users.)

I have seen many get into trouble with drugs, but it is hard to make a case for a brain disease, except perhaps a transient one, with underlying processes akin to those of a transient delirium secondary to an intoxication state. They used daily for years, several times a day, and then stopped cold turkey, and went on about their business. (Tobacco comes to mind in many examples.)

I can see the brain disease metaphor having some value in the first instance.

And I see little value in the second instance.

It's a complex problem with no simple solution, but it's not at all clear that the concept of a brain disease or the concept of "addiction" are making the problem any more soluble.

And isn't that the goal of the public health science?

To make health problems soluble?

For any heterogeneous and complex condition, the brain disease and addiction metaphors might well be examples of hopeless over-simplification.

Or maybe the current U.S. Congress can be convinced to spend more money on health, if we convert all complex health problems and behaviors to brain diseases and turn to the addiction metaphor to characterize them:

addiction to love
addiction to running
addiction to reading
addiction to ... reading blogposts?
addiction to writing.....

You must judge for yourself.



Sunday, February 5, 2017

Housekeeping note Super Bowl Sunday

A note to blog readers.
If you see a large blank space where there should be a photo or image, please post a comment and let me know about it.
It's probably a problem such as my failure to set the image with a publicly shareable link.
I think this is a glitch in Google Blogger.
It's necessary for me to be logged into my google account in order to compose a blog, but because I am logged in, I can see every image I import from by Gdrive. I then check out the Preview function and see if the image shows up there. If I can, from now on, I will try it from a different device where I'm not logged into the Google account, if I have time to do so.
But you can back me up and add a comment when you cannot see an image (or when a URL link is broken) or if you spot other problems.
Thanks!

p.s. Prior complaints stopped when I started using an app called "BlogTouch Pro," which has all the blogger.com features I typically need and uploads screenshots from my iPad without a hitch. The only hidden feature that was hard to find is the Scheduler to delay release of the blogpost. It doesn't show up until after you press the Gear (Settings) button, followed by the "Publish" option. The Scheduler icon is a clock face that then shows  up on the top menu to the right of the post title and to the left of the other menu items up top.

Friday, February 3, 2017

Examples of 21st century Small Area Census Research

There now is widespread enthusiasm for what I call "one off" mega-sample studies to estimate population health parameters of interest across the full range of suspected genomic and enviromic determinants of causal or protective significance (1). To define "mega-sample" I generally work from a concept of multiples of a scaled single Principal Investigator project (e.g., a five year NIH R01 project within the standard NIH budget limit of US$500,000 direct costs, minus overhead, each year). Here, the working model for this type of R01 project starts with the concept of a population being sampled and measured on a scale that is within the grasp of a small research team led by one Principal Investigator, with at least one face to face assessment session with each participant, lasting 45-90 minutes, and at least one followup assessment session roughly one year later. What can be achieved on the scale of a single R01project of this type is a local area target population sample of size roughly n=2,500, assuming 80% participation level. That is a project on a manageable scale for a single well-trained population health scientist.

 For a "mega-sample" project, think of multiples of this basic project working unit, with two important implications:

First, more than one PI will be required for management of a second project on this scale in order to maintain quality control and protect against drift of assessment protocols. This situation is due to the extended time required to achieve larger samples, as well as 'house effects' and 'sub-house effects' created by organization of field work across time or across the increased numbers of project directors and fieldwork supervisors required to shift the scale upward beyond the scale of the first project as described above.

B. There is no chance for systematic replication. The wad is shot on getting one mega-sample rather than the option of multiple studies that can shed light on reproducibility and robustness via production of multiple estimates of the same study parameter.

Yes, the mega-sample can be sorted into batches after the fact, but consider the additional waste in the form of opportunity cost-- fewer new investigators engaged in field research early in their careers because only senior investigators will be judged as meritorious leaders of the mega-sample units.

The problem is compounded when the centrally designed "U" cooperative agreement mechanism is substituted for R01 multi-PI linked investigations, which gives scientists in the funding agency too much of a controlling hand -- unless from the get-go they have the best ideas, as judged by non-government scientists. I have seen this happen only rarely.

Exceptions can occur. The NIMH ECA program began with a contract to Prof. Jerry Myers at Yale and then was extended to a five site study (e.g., Prof. Mort Kramer at Hopkins, Lee Robins at Wash U St. Louis, Prof. Dan Blazer at Duke, Prof. Marv  Karno at UCLA). Later, led by Bill Eaton at the Baltimore site, our team was able to extend that U project via competitive R01 proposals and it now is being sustained with a new award for another followup, more than36 years after we drew the Baltimore sample and took baseline assessments in 1981. But this kind of enriched longitudinal study of a local area occurred at only one of the five 'U' sites. We ought to be able to do better. .One reason, I think, was the centrally controlled 'U' origin of that study. In another universe perhaps there is a multi-PI version of linked R01 from the get-go. My guess is that more than one of the five sites lasted longer than a single award cycle for data gathering in that universe, versus the one-fifth success value  achieved with the centrally controlled 'U' starting point.

See if you can find 21st century examples of PI-initiated local area census work, of the type launched by Hopkins in Hagerstown, Maryland, and post comments about them so that we can study them. 

Here is a link to a very brief description of the Hagerstown local area census study. Please add a comment if you can find a better description in open source online document. I have been unable to find one.

See pages 110-111 of this book, which you can view using google books. It is from Whatley T et al., Am. J Epidemiol, 1968 (vol 89, no. 1).
 





Neonate response to early enviromic visual stimuli

Face research

Let me know if any of you are interested in this kind of research.

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Drugs and predatory crime... general social maladaptation

It is impossible for me to think about these linkages without considering how we can predict and how we can shape early risks of drug involvement by knowing and shaping early adaptation all (or maladaptational) responses to social task demands faced in early primary school.

But it is worthwhile to study whether drug use might promote maladaptive behavior, independent of that association.

Chaiken and Chaiken (1990) offer a helpful review of some of the issues faced in this area of research.

If you have interest in child social maladaptation on later drug use, these are important issues.

Question 1: While drug is illegal, can anyone ignore the link to social maladaptation (failure to live up to social role expectations, including to abide by the rules)?

Question 2: Consider a place where use of a drug is not against the rules: In that context, would social maladaptation still predict incidence of drug use?

Some commentators (without much evidence) argue thstbin the 19th century, before supra-local drug lars, there was no such association. Will the association weaken as we look, year by year, at the social maladaptation index and incidence of drug use? As we look in ESPAD countries arrayed from Portugal (liberal rules) to Sweden (still relatively strict rules)?