Saturday, September 30, 2017

APC models

This evening I truly enjoyed reading this paper on APC analyses, which includes many provocative thoughts and interesting claoms (not all of which are matters of general agreement).

If you have or will use APC modeling, see the critiques, and pay attention to them in your measurement plans.

The MTF data ask about grade of first use, rather than age at first use of a drug, rendering the measurement problem for APC modeling even more difficult than it is in the typical public use data context when birthdate is not disclosed.

No need to repeat the MTF or NSDUH mistakes in your measurements or construction of variables.

Is the NSDUH approach a mistake? Only when the goal requires more refined data than the PUF offer us. It could offer us other information such as number of days from a specified origin to an event (or the month of an event) -- i.e., a constructed variable that gives the time dimension a fine-grained rather than coarse-grained unit of measurement.

Switching variables also could be provided, such as a switch to say whether the event occurred before or after a specific birthday.

Is the MTF approach a mistake? Here, grade of first use rather than age of first use is even more useless than what is faced in NSDUH.

Why a change in measurement approach has not followed the papers from MTF that speak of APC modeling escapes me. "Grade" is a very fuzzy construct in demography and in epidemiology. Its utility in APC models is not at all clear, for reasons described in this paper , with some very nice graphical displays:

APC and Russian mortality



 

Monday, September 18, 2017

Saturday, September 9, 2017

The Emergence of the Modern Scientific Method

Some of you have asked about the approach of direct experience and observation leading to potential lawful relationships, and then these laws (theories) forming particular predictions (hypotheses), and then subjecting these predictions to mathematical evaluation.

I found this book, available to us on JSTOR, to be useful.
These chapters and the work of Roger Bacon, an apparent student of a Robert Grosseteste at Oxford, describe crucial developments:





There is a BBC4 podcast on the life of Bacon if you get tired of reading after Chapter 3:

Roger Bacon podcast