Link to interesting article by a smart journalist who interviewed me by phone over the holiday (and mainly got it right). More right than the RollingStone writer who "stepped on" my suggestion that a parent contemplating purchase of a drug test kit should instead use the cost of the test kit to take the kid out to dinner and just listen, lisren, listen
Is there a Marijuana Anonymous Chapter near you?
The article cites Catalina's NESARC study that I told Shelby to check out, and it now prompts me to ask:
Why did the NIAAA in-house study of transition probabilities overshoot our NIMH study estimate that about one in 7-8 drinkers would be affected by alcohol dependence?
The NIAAA estimate places EOH up there with cocaine and bumps our 1in 3 tobacco estimate to 2 in 3?
Who yah gonna trust?
Hoping for comment from Catalina or one of the NESARC investigators.
I suspect a "gate" in the diagnostic workup or in the analysis step such that NESARC used a different denominator. Possibly an artifact induced by tracking the survival function out to a very thin sample space on the right hand side of the curve.
Comment if you can narrow down the possibilities.
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